“发展陷阱”的形成原因分析——兼论中国经济落入发展陷阱的必然性

A Discussion on the Formation Mechanism of Development Trap —also a discussion on the inevitability of China falling into the development trap

陷入"发展陷阱"之前的追赶型国家,往往会出现以美元计量的人均名义GDP增长率快于以本币计量的人均实际GDP增长率,这实际上也就是国际相对成本的上升和国际相对竞争力的下降,国内外市场因此会不断被更低收入国家蚕食;人均美元收入的快速提高产生的对生活品质的追求,会导致大量有效需求向发达国家转移。这些表现在企业收支上,也就是成本的提高与收入的减少;在国家层面则表现为外贸收支逆差增加和外汇储备减少或外债增加,由此落入"发展陷阱"。我国目前可能正处在该陷阱的入口。

Before a backward country fall into the development trap, its per capita nominal GDP growth rate （ US Dollars） tends to be bigger than its real per capita GDP growth rate（ national currency）. Actually, this phenomenon means the relative cost of the backward country is increasing and the relative competitiveness is declining in the international market. So the mar- ket share home and abroad decreasing because of other countries which enjoy low cost; the rapid increasing per capita nominal GDP（ US Dollars） leads to the highly demand for life quality and then a large amount of effective demand will transfer to the de- veloped countries. In enterprise budget perspective, all above means increasing cost and decreasing income; in the macro view, all above means foreign trade deficit is increasing and foreign exchange reserves is decreasing. Then the backward coun- try will fall into the development trap. According to these, China is going to fall into the trap.