森林碳汇与经济增长的库兹涅茨倒“U”型研究

Study of Kuznets inverted U-shaped relation between forest carbon sink and economic growth

首先构造了森林碳汇与经济增长的库兹涅茨倒"U"型假设,然后利用1993～2011年的相关数据对森林碳汇与经济增长的数量关系进行实证研究。结果发现:长期均衡中,经济增长与森林碳汇具有显著的库兹涅茨倒"U"型关系,在经济增长初期,森林碳汇规模是递增的,当经济规模达到733499.7亿元时,森林碳汇与经济增长实现均衡,而随着经济继续增长,森林碳汇量将出现下滑;短期均衡中,经济增长与森林碳汇组成的库兹涅茨倒"U"型系统相对稳健,系统应对短期波动的冲击只需-3.97×10-9的调整力度即可恢复均衡。

Based on the inverted ＂U＂ hypothesis of Kuznets, a quadratic curve equation between forest carbon sink and economic growth from 1993 to 2011 was established; and then the Eviews software for model analysis was applied.The results indicate that in the long-run equilibrium, there existed a long term equilibrium relationship between forest carbon sink and economic growth, that isKuznets inverted U-shaped relation; in the early stage economic growth, the scale of forest carbon sink was increasing, when the economic scale had reached the vertex of the inverted u-shaped, being 73.349997 trillion yuan（the corresponding year is about 2016 predicted by GM（1,1））, the forest carbon sink achieved a balanced growth with the economic again; when the economy sequentially grew, the forest carbon sink was declining.In the short-term equilibrium, it was found that the system of Kuznets inverted U-shaped which was established by economic growth and forest carbon sink was relatively stable. When the system meets a short-term impact, it only needs a 3.97×10^-9 adjustment to achieve a long systematic balance, which further validates the robustness of the long-term equilibrium model.