1930年代苏联构建集体安全的失败——一种基于“威胁平衡理论”的分析

Analysis on Failure of Soviet Union's Collective Security in 1930s:Based on Balance of Threat Theory

1930年代,如何认识和应对德国法西斯的威胁是摆在欧洲各国面前的一道难题。苏联基于自身对威胁的感知,提出共同应对德国威胁的"集体安全政策",最后以失败告终。从国际关系结盟理论视角来看,沃尔兹代表的"传统结盟理论"认为各国会制衡权力最大的国家,斯蒂芬·沃尔特在对沃尔兹批判的基础上提出"威胁平衡理论",认为国家需要制衡对其威胁最大的国家,而不一定是权力最大者。从"威胁平衡理论"的基本观点来看,苏联建立集体安全努力失败的根本原因是欧洲各国对"谁是最大威胁国家"的不同认定,进而加剧了集体行动的难度。

In 1930s, how to understand and respond to the threat of Nazi Germany was a problem to other European countries. The Soviet Union made a joint collective security policy to respond to the German threat based on their perception of the threat of Germany, but it ultimately failed. According to alliance theory , the traditional alliance theory of Waltz considers that other countries ally to check and balance the most powerful countries, Stephen Walt put forward balance of threat theory based on Waltz＇s theory. Walt holds that alliance needs to balance the greatest threat to their country, and not necessarily the most powerful country. According to basic concept of balance of threat theory, the basic reason of Soviet Union failing to establish collective security system was European countries＇ different viewpoints on which country brought about the largest threat, which further exacerbated the