欧元汇率波动对中欧商品贸易的影响研究——基于SITC分类的汇率弹性测算

Influences of the Exchange Rate Fluctuations of Euro on the Merchandize Trade between China and the EU

2011年,欧盟与中国相互成为最大贸易伙伴,欧元也成为人民币汇率形成机制中主要权重货币,欧元汇率变动对于双边贸易均衡及贸易结构均产生很大影响。本文采用1999-2008年间汇率波动和商品贸易季度数据,进行单位根检验和协整检验,并构建误差修正模型(ECM)对欧元兑人民币汇率变动与中欧不同种类商品贸易长期和短期的影响进行实证分析。①分析结果表明,从长期看,欧元与人民币汇率变动对双边贸易影响满足马歇尔-勒纳条件,汇率贬值对贸易收支改善作用显著,但各类商品的汇率弹性存在较大差异;短期均衡关系则不显著。

China and the EU became each other’s largest trade partner in 2011.In addition,as one of the currencies playing a decisive role in the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,the exchange rate fluctuations of the Euro will exert great influences on the balance and structure of the bilateral merchandize trade.Based on the quarterly data from 1999-2008 and with the help of unit-root test,Johansen cointegration test and the ECM model,this paper analyzes both the short-and long-term influences of the exchange rate of RMB to Euro on the bilateral trade in different types of goods.The empirical results reveal that the effects of the RMB-Euro exchange rate on the bilateral trade have satisfied the Marshall-Lerner Condition,that is,in a long time,the devaluation of RMB against Euro has improved the trade balance between China and the Euro area,with great divergences in the exchange-rate elasticity in different kinds of merchandize.However,this effect is not so notable in a short time.