2013年中国物价走势分析与判断

Analysis and Judgement on China＇ s CPI Trend of 2013

全国居民消费价格指数自2011年7月达到本轮涨幅最高的6．5％之后，在波动中连续15个月呈小幅回落态势，最后进入了“1”时代。2012年我国物价总体温和上涨，基本呈现“前高后低”的小幅波动回落走势，同比涨幅从1月份的4．5％回落到10月份的1．7％，创33个月以来新低。1—11月CPI同比上涨2．7％，涨幅比2011年回落2．7个百分点，低于全年4％的调控目标1．3个百分点，物价调控已完美收官。预测2013年，总体经济的增长虽然可喜，但是对于普通百姓而言，

2012, the CPI trend fell from 4% to about 2%, and finally into the ＂1＂ era. However, in November, CPI rose again back to 2%, preliminary judged the current round of price fall trends have basically been completed, price will enter a new round of rising stage. Affected by the new round of global easing of monetary policy, higher commodity prices and short-term reflow of capital, are likely to push up the 2013 CPI; the food supply and demand totally are in tight balance, and it is easy to make the price rise expected to translate into rising reality by international and domestic supply shock or monetary easing; PPI gradually rises again, will be partly transmitted to the CPI, and the comprehensive price pressure in 2013 will rise slightly ;then considering the reform of price factor, the CPI in 2013 will rise some more. The rising price is the most relevant economic phenomenon with people living. The year of 2013 is the first year of the new Chinese government, the transitional year of implementation of the ＂12th Five-Year Plan＂, and the important year to lay a solid foundation for building a moderately prosperous society. Therefore, the focus of the price work of the new government is to maintain the basic stability of general price level, to promote important commodity market supply and demand balance, to further reduce distribution costs and to regulate the market price and charge order; to make solid progress of reform in key areas, to expand the pilot regions and industry-wide where VAT can replace business tax, to improve formation mechanism of resource products price.