汇率的分析与预测

Analyse and prediction of exchange rate

用随机序列分析法及灰色系统理论分析了汇率的特征 .建立指数平滑模型与灰色模型 GM(1,1) ,预计汇率未来的发展趋势 ,并在时间层次上给出了汇率的预测值 .

By using the analytic method of random time series and the theory of grey systems,the characteristics of exchange rate were analyzed.The exponential smoothing model and grey model GM(1,1) were established and in advance,the developmenttrend of exchange rate was calculated.Besides,on the gradation of time,it gives a predictive value for the enterprises to refer to.