基于地统计分析的安徽县域经济空间差异研究

Research of Spatial Differences of County Economy in Anhui Based on Geostatistical Analysis

以安徽省各县域人均GDP为研究指标,综合运用空间自相关、克里格空间插值、空间变异函数等方法,结合ArcGIS9.3及GeoDA软件对安徽省县域经济的空间差异进行研究。结果表明:县域经济自2002年开始出现微弱的空间集聚态势,人均GDP自西向东有逐渐增加,从北向南有先增加后减少的趋势。局部空间自相关分析发现,HH区主要位于皖江城市带中个别县域,LL区主要位于西北地区,LH区与HL区大部分交错分布在中部地区。皖江城市带地区为县域经济发展的核心,西北地区逐渐沦为县域经济发展的"洼地"。冷点地区主要分布在皖西北地区,热点地区分布在皖中及中部偏东地区。空间变异分析发现安徽省县域经济的发展受区域中心地区影响力度逐渐增大。总体上县域经济发展差异增大,区域资源禀赋与交通区位、发展政策、中心城市发展状况是引起空间差异的主要原因。

By selecting the per capita GDP of every county, this article uses the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis （ESDA）, Kriging spatial interpolation, semivariogram fimction, and the software of ArcGIS9.3 and GeoDA to study the county economy of Anhui province in 2001, 2005 and 2010.The results show that： The county economy presents a weak positive spatial autocorrelation from 2002 to 2010, it has a growing tendency from east to west, and first growing then decreasing from north to south. Through the analysis of local spatial autocorrelation, counties in Wanjiang city belts are almost in the HH district, counties in the northwest are mainly in the LL district, the LH and HL districts distribute in the middle region. The center of county economy is Wanjiang city belts, the northwest gradually become the ＂low-lying land＂ of county economy. The analysis of local G index shows that the cold-spot areas are mainly in the northwest, the hot-spot areas are mainly located in the central and east of Anhui. Through the analysis of semivariogram function, it found that the regional center area has a growing effect on the development of county economy. Generally speaking, the development differences of county economy has increased, regional resources endowments and location, policies, the development of central cities are the main reasons that cause the spatial differences.