承销关系影响分析师行为吗?——来自证券分析师荐股和预测活动的证据

Does Underwriting Relationship Affect the Security Analysts＇ Behaviors： Evidence from Analysts＇ Recommendations and Forecasts in China

以2005--2009年间的分析师荐股和盈余预测活动为背景，本文探讨中国证券分析师活动的独立性。结果表明，承销关系对分析师荐股和预测活动产生重要影响，主要表现为证券分析师更愿意对其隶属券商承销过的股票给出更为积极的评价。我们还发现，在盈余公告即将发布时，关联分析师盈余预测的乐观性却降低，盈余预测与真实值的相对偏差也更大。这说明，关联分析师具有盈余预测预期管理的动机，他们会以牺牲预测精确性为代价而在盈余公告即将发布时调低预测，使公司的实际每股收益战胜市场预期，从而博得公司管理层的好感。借鉴MalmendierandShanthikumar（2009）的说法，就是关联分析师的战略性扭曲动机非常强烈。

We investigate the independence of security analysts＇ activities in China using the sample from 2005--2009. We find that underwriting relationship has a significant impact on analysts＇ recommendations and forecasts activities~ that is, the recommendations and earn- ing forecast are always more optimistically biased when analysts are affiliated with underwrit- er. We also find that affiliated underwriter analysts are more likely to distort forecasts down- wards just before yearly earnings announcement, thereby helping firms＇ management to beat the market expectations. In this sense, affiliated analysts are catering the firms＇ management. Therefore the strategic distortion dominates analysts＇ behaviors in China.