我国财政支出波动对居民消费波动的影响研究

Study on Fiscal Expenditure Volatility Impacts on Residents’ Consumption Volatility in China

利用1981—2010年我国27个省级地区的面板数据,在加入居民收入波动、金融发展水平、贸易开放度三个控制变量的基础上,综合运用固定效应模型及工具变量估计法,对我国财政支出波动与居民消费波动的关系进行探讨,结果表明:居民消费波动受财政支出波动的影响显著,两者呈正相关关系;金融发展水平及贸易开放度有助于减轻居民消费的波动程度;居民收入波动对消费波动的影响不显著。

Using the panel data of 27 provinces~ in China from 1981 to 2010, based on the control variables included the resident income shock, level of financial development and trade openness, the paper analyses the influence of government expenditure volatility on resident consumption volatility and discuss whether fiscal expenditure volatility is an important fluctuating resource of resident consumption by using fixed effect model and instrumental variables method. The results shows that government expenditure volatility has a significant impact on resident consumption volatility; the higher financial development level and the more open trading market can reduce the volatility of consumption; resident income shock has no significant impact on their consumption volatility.