猪肉价格周期、劳动力价格与通货膨胀

Pork Price Cycle,Labor Price and Inflation

猪肉价格周期变动主要是受到劳动力价格水平的变动影响。农民工的工资变动会导致对劳动力价格敏感的养猪户做出放弃养猪(去打工)或增加养猪(放弃打工)的变化,进而导致猪肉价格的升降变动。工业部门中的可贸易部门的工资变动,使猪肉价格周期变动效应放大。关注可贸易部门的劳动力价格的工资变动,可以预测猪肉价格周期,进而可以预测通货膨胀走势。

Pork price cyclical change was mainly influenced by the level of labor force price changes. The changes of migrant workers wage changes will lead sensitive pig farmers to give up the raising pig on the labor price （ to work ） or increase the raising pig （ give up work ）, leading to changes in the price of pork lifting. The wage changes of tradable department in industrial sectors make the pork price cyclical change effect amplification. Paying attention to tradable department labor price changes, which can predict the price of pork price cycle and can predict the trend of inflation.