到2020年中国实现减排目标的减排成本测算

An Estimation of the Abatement Cost before China’s Fulfillment of the Emission Reduction Goal by 2020

在减排成本估算方面,已有研究间的差异比较明显。采用MAC方法,测算比较多种情形下的减排成本表明:若2006-2010年投入2万亿元,则2011-2020年总减排成本为2.25万亿元(减排40%)和2.78万亿元(减排45%);若减排成本为48.08元/tCO2,则2011-2020年总减排成本为13 668.11亿元(减排45%)。此外,资金的时间价值和通货膨胀严重影响减排成本。这一研究结果更能反映我国的实际情况,对减排资金的投入具有一定的指导意义。

The current studies concerning the estimation of emission cost differentiate one another to a large degree. This paper calculates and compares the abatement cost under several different circumstances by adopting the MAC-method and the research shows that if we had invested 2 000 billion Yuan during the period from 2006 to 2010, the total abatement cost in the next period, from 2011 to 2020 would be 2 250 billion Yuan （40% reduction） or 2 780 billion Yuan （45% reduction）. If the abatement cost was 48.08 Yuan per ton of CO2, the total abatement cost of the period from 2011 to 2020 would be 1 366. 811 billion Yuan （45% reduction）. Besides, the capital＇s time value and inflation may influence the abatement cost immensely. As is manifested, the result of this research is more reliable in reflecting China＇s current situation, and is more instructive in the investment of emission abatement.