基础设施视角下的中国天然气消费增长模式研究

On the Growth Path of Gas China's Consumption in View of Infrastructure

在过去30年,中国天然气消费增长经历了"前慢后快"的戏剧性变化。天然气需求水平和基础设施能力的互动是天然气发展的重要运行机制。该机制又可以分为两种模式:一种是消费增长刺激基础设施建设的需求诱致模式,另一种是基础设施建设推动消费规模扩张的供给推动模式。中国近30多年的天然气发展历史基本遵循供给推动模式,需求诱致模式没有发挥显著作用。供给推动模式既有阶段性贡献,也带来诸如"气荒"等问题。随着中国天然气产业的进一步发展,需求诱致模式将发挥越来越大的作用。

In the past 30 years, there was a dramatic change in China＇s gas consumption growth, namely ＂ slow first and then fast＂. The mutual effect on each other with gas demand scale and its infrastructure capacity was the key working mechanism in the growth of gas consume level. And then, the working mechanism above mentioned is divided into two modes： One is the so-called ＂ demand induced＂, and the other is the ＂supply pushing＂. The path of China＇s gas consume growth basically followed the ＂ supply pushing＂ mode, and ＂demand induced＂ not worked to a great extent. However, along with the phase contribution to China＇s gas industry, ＂ supply pushing＂ mode brought about some problems, such as so-called ＂gas famine＂. In pace with the further development of China＇s gas industry, the ＂demand induced＂ would play more and more important role in gas consumption growth in the future.