能源效率视角下中国能源结构的灰色关联及通径分析

Analysis of Energy Structure in China Based on Gray Relational Model and Path Analysis under the Perspective of Energy Efficiency

能源结构的合理化程度与能源效率的高低有着密切关联。在对中国能源生产和消费结构定性分析后,建立基于2000—2010年能源统计数据的广义灰色关联模型。结果显示,煤炭的综合关联度远高于其他能源,石油的生产和消费关联度差异明显,天然气和清洁能源的综合关联度皆处于较低水平。在此基础上利用通径分析法进一步考察不同的能源消费对能源效率的直接、间接以及总体影响。根据测算结果,可以发现适度减少煤炭消费,提升石油、清洁能源的消费比重以及民用天然气的普及对提高中国能源效率具有积极作用。

The rationalization degree of the energy structure is closely related to the level of energy efficiency. After qualitative analysis on energy production and consumption structure of China, a generalized gray relational model based on the 2000-2010 energy statistics was established. The results show that the correlation degree of the coal is much higher than other energy sources, the correlation degree between oil production and consumption is widely different with natural gas and clean energy being at a low level. On this basis, path analysis method is used to further examine the direct, indirect and total effects of different energy consumption on energy efficiency. According to the estimation results, a modest reduction of coal consumption, expanding the consumption proportion of oil and clean energy, promoting the popularity of residential natural gas are regarded as positive approaches to improve energy efficiency.