基于脱钩模型的山东省低碳经济发展研究

A Study of Low-Carbon Economic Development in Shandong Province Based on Decoupling Model

经济增长与碳排放之间的关系是低碳经济学研究的重要领域。以山东省为研究区域,基于1996—2010年的年度数据,运用Tapio脱钩理论,分析山东省的经济总量GDP增长与二氧化碳排放量之间的脱钩关系。实证研究表明,最近几年山东省的脱钩状态呈现弱脱钩,经济增长速度大于碳排放增长速度,减排工作取得了初步成效,但是远未达到理想的绝对脱钩状态。因此,山东在低碳经济发展战略方面应当采取更加积极有效的对策。

The relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions is an important area of low carbon economics. The paper analyzes the deeoupling relationship between the growth of economic aggregate GDP and CO2 emissions with decoupling theory based on annual data from 1996 to 2010 in Shandong Province. The results showed that there was weak decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions in recent years, with economic growth rate being greater than the growth rate of carbon, and the emission reduction having achieved initial success but far from the idea of absolute decoupling state. Therefore, Shandong should take more active and effective measures in low-carbon economic development strategies.