我国系统性金融风险预警指标体系构建及测度

Construction and Measurement of Systemic Financial Risk Early Warning Index System in China

本文从宏观经济总体运行、银行体系、经济泡沫、国内外债务以及外部冲击影响等五个维度,利用19个量化指标构建了我国系统性金融风险预警指标体系;并运用层次分析法对我国系统性金融风险进行了实证分析,结果表明,我国历年系统性金融风险一直处在安全区间内,但还存在经济泡沫增加、外部冲击加大的不安全隐患。因此,应适当控制GDP增长速度,减缓外汇储备增加速度;适当提高存贷利率,抑制财政赤字规模增加速度;降低短期外债在外债总额中的占比,适当控制外汇储备规模等,进而有效降低系统性金融风险。

From five dimensions of the financial risk warning ranges into - overall macroeeonomic operation, bank system, economic bubble, domestic and foreign debt and the impact of external shocks, this paper constructs the early warning indicators of financial risk system in China by using 19 quantitative indexes. Using analytic hierarchy weighting method to analyze the system- atic financial risk, the results show that China＇ s annual financial systemic risk has been in the safe range, there is no security risks economic bubble and external shocks are gradually increasing. Therefore, suitable measures should be taken to control the growth rate of GDP, reduce foreign exchange reserves increased speed, increasing the deposit and lending interest rates, inhibit the size of the fiscal deficit increased speed, reduce the short - term foreign debt in total external debt in proportion, appropriately control the scale of foreign exchange reserve measures, so as to effectively reduce systemic financial risk.