农地流入方进行农地投资的风险分析

Agricultural land investment risk analysis of the contract management right holders

为了促进农地流入方进行农地投资,了解和分析农地流入方在投资过程中所面临的风险就显得十分重要。针对农地流入方在进行农地投资时所面临风险的问题,通过"有无对比法"分析流入方进行农地投资与不进行农地投资在成本收益上的差异,并以西安市及周边县市有关农地流入方投资的343份实地调查问卷所收集的数据为基础,运用蒙特卡罗法对农地投资后的投资收益进行模拟。结果表明:对种植粮食作物的农地与种植经济作物的农地进行投资时,所面临的风险因素和风险大小存在一定的差异,并据此提出降低农地投资风险的政策性建议。

In order to promote the investment in agricultural land of contract management right holders, understanding and analysising of the risks which faced in investment process is very important. According to the problem of the risk faced by the contract management right holders in investment process, we use the with and without comparison evaluation method to analysis the cost-benefit differences between investment and non-investment in agricultural land. Finally, Monte Carlo method and the data based on 343 field questionnaire of the investment of contract management right holders in Xi＇an and the surrounding counties were used to simulate investment income after investment in agricultural land. The results showed that： Risk factors and risks size faced by the investment of agricultural land for growing food crops and agricultural land in the cultivation of cash crops are differences, then put forward policy recommendations to reduce the risk of investment in agricultural land.