洛阳牡丹花期预测模型构建与检验

Construction and evaluation of the prediction model for florescence of peony in Luoyang City Henan Province

研究洛阳邙山种植区1983—2010年‘迎日红’牡丹花期资料与气象资料,通过SPSS18筛选出日最高温度稳定通过0℃的积温、10 cm土层厚度处地温稳定通过4℃的平均温度和15 cm土层厚度处地温稳定通过4℃积温与牡丹盛花期有显著相关性,并利用SAS构建牡丹花期预测模型。通过对1983—2010年数据进行回代比较和2011—2012年进行试预报发现相对误差范围为-2.38%～1.51%,证明了该模型的可靠性。

The relationship between meteorological data and flowering data of peony in Mangshan Mountain from 1983 to 2010 was investigated~ The results showed that flowering data was significantly correlated with the soil temperature and accumulated temperature. Through the selected meteorological factors, a prediction model was made by using SAS system. Furthermore, the relative error between the forecasted and the factual values ranged from -2. 38% to 1.51%. The model could exactly forecast the florescence, which provided a reliable reference to predicting flores- cence of peony.