导弹打击海上移动目标中的卫星侦察信息精度影响分析

Impact analysis of satellite reconnaissance information precision on missile hitting maritime floating target

研究卫星侦察信息精度对导弹打击海上移动目标命中概率的影响,对于提高导弹作战效能具有重要意义。根据导弹打击海上移动目标的原理,描述了其作战过程,分析了导弹命中概率影响因素,建立了基于卫星侦察信息精度的导弹命中概率计算模型,并通过蒙特卡洛方法分析了卫星侦察信息精度对导弹命中概率的影响。分析结果表明:在可接受区间内,卫星侦察信息精度对导弹命中概率的影响可以忽略,在可接受区间外,导弹命中概率随着信息精度降低而下降。

The impact of satellite reconnaissance information precision on hitting probability of missile hitting maritime floating target was investigated, which is significant for improving the operational efficiency of missile. According to the principle of missile hitting maritime floating target, the operational process was depicted, the impact factors of hitting probability were analyzed, and the calculating model of hitting probability based on satellite reconnaissance information precision was established. The impact of satellite reconnaissance information precision on hitting probability was analyzed by Monte - Carlo method. The results prove that if the satellite reconnaissance information precision is in the acceptable range, the impact is able to be ignored;otherwise, the missile hitting probability descends along with the fall of the information precision.