基于模糊数学和灰色关联分析的化工储罐区火灾风险评估研究

Study on fire risk assessment of chemical storage tank area based on fuzzy mathematics and grey relational analysis

通过模糊数学建立了化工储罐区风险评价指标体系,将灰色关联分析引入层次分析的权重确定中,并应用到一实际化工储罐区的安全评价中,求得该区域风险影响因素隶属度模糊集。依据最大隶属度原则,化工储罐区域风险影响因素等级为轻微;依据评分法得化工储罐区的安全现状为"良好",二者结论相符合,也和实际情况相符合。评价过程降低了由人为主观因素导致的失误,使整体的评估结果更加客观、科学与合理,有利于重大危险源的区域规划和资源配置,降低区域范围内的火灾危险性。

This paper establishes the fire risk evaluation index system of chemical storage tank area through the fuzzy mathematics, in which the grey relational analysis is introduced to determine weight vector of arrangement a- nalysis, and applies to an actual safety evaluation for a chemical storage tank area that the fuzzy sets of regional risk factors membership is （0. 0611,0. 1222, 0. 2568, 0. 3819, 0. 1680）. According to the maximum membership de- gree principle, the level of risk belongs to minor level; According to the scoring method, the safety situation of chemical storage tank area is ＂ good＂. Both conclusions are consistent with the actual situation. The evaluation process reduces mistakes made by human subjective factors and makes integral evaluation results more objective, scientific and rational. The evaluation result will be helpful for regional planning of major hazards and allocation of resources to reduce the regional fire risk.