基于WOFOST的东北地区玉米生育期气象条件适宜度评价

Evaluation of Meteorological Suitability Degree during Maize Growth Period Based on WOFOST in Northeast China

利用东北地区1981-2007年164个气象站逐日气象资料、玉米产量资料和30个农业气象试验站的玉米生育期资料,建立东北地区玉米生长发育期气象条件适宜程度诊断模型,计算玉米主要发育阶段(播种-出苗、出苗-拔节、拔节-开花、开花-乳熟、乳熟-成熟)的综合气象适宜度指数。应用WOFOST模型模拟玉米生物量,采用优化方法确定了基于模拟生物量(地上总干物重、穗重)的东北地区玉米不同发育阶段气象适宜程度诊断指标,动态、定量评价了玉米各生育阶段的气象适宜程度,并以2006年玉米全生育期气象适宜程度评价结果为例进行比较验证。结果表明,该方法的评价结果与利用综合气象适宜度指数得到的评价结果相比,等级完全相同和相差一个等级的占85%～90%,与研究区农业气象部门的监测公报也基本一致。表明该方法得到的评价结果可为玉米生产适应气候变化提供决策依据,相应的评价指标可在农业气象业务中推广应用。

Based on daily meteorological data of 164 meteorological stations, maize yield data of 164 counties and maize growth and development period data of 30 agro-meteorological experiment stations from 1981 to 2007, authors established the meteorological suitability degree diagnosis model of maize growth in Northeast China. By using the diagnosis model, the comprehensive meteorological suitability indices were calculated during the main development stages of maize （sowing to emergence, emergence to jointing, jointing to anthesis, anthesis to milk-ripe, milk-ripe to mature）. The maize biomass was simulated by applying WOFOST model. The meteorological suitability diagnosis index of maize during the different developmental stage was determined based on the simulated biomass （total aboveground dry matter weight, storage weight） by optimization method. Used the diagnosis index, the meteorological suitability degree of maize during different growth stage was evaluated dynamically and quantitatively. And during the whole growth period of maize in 2006, the meteorological suitability evaluation results were compared and verified as an example. The results indicated that the evaluation results based on WOFOST model and those based on compositive meteorological suitability index were in substantial agreement, grade identical and differ by one grade accounted for 85% -90%. It was in substantial agreement with the monitoring bulletin of agro-meteorological department. The evaluation results based on WOFOST model can provide decision making for maize production to adapt to climate change, the evaluation index can be popularized and applied in agro-meteorological service.