摘要
现代社会科学的研究对象具有连续性、线性发展特征,这是现代定量研究的基础。现代社会科学普遍缺乏对于非连续、非线性的突发事件的研究,但突发事件对社会发展意义重大。突发事件打破路径依赖,使制度变迁和技术进步障碍消除,机会之窗打开。突发事件可以暴露系统存在的缺陷,是制度变迁、技术进步的动力,也决定了变迁方向、地点和时机。在公共政策制定与公共管理中,应用突发事件相关的脆弱性、混沌、制度变迁理论,可以探讨如何有效推动制度和技术进步。
The object of modern social science has features of continuity and linearity. But there are few research on sudden event, but they are dynamics of social development. Both the path dependence or obstacle of development will be broken by a sudden event, and the opportunity windows will be opened. Failure in system will be exposed by sud- den event, which will guide the direction of institutional change and technical progress. In public policy and pubtie management the applying of vulnerability, chaos and event-institution change theory will be useful to push institution and technical progress.
出处
《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》
2013年第1期16-23,89,共9页
Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition
关键词
突发事件
蝴蝶效应
风险治理
危机
公共政策
制度变迁
技术进步
emergency
butterfly effect
risk management
crisis
public policy
institutional change
technical pro-gress
