模糊实物期权方法在PPP项目价值评估中的应用

Evaluation on the Value of Public Private Partnership Project by Using Fuzzy Real Option

在投资、建设、运营和移交的过程中,PPP项目价值是利益各方关注的首要问题。在PPP项目全寿命期周期内,市场环境、政策以及决策者本身带来的不确定性都可能影响项目的价值,此类价值很难通过传统的评价方法计算,而需要借助实物期权的思想来获得。本文在相关研究的基础上,提出了基于模糊实物期权的PPP项目价值评估一般步骤:资料收集与整理、项目价值分析、实物期权界定与分析、项目价值计算、敏感性分析、得出结论。然后,推导出模糊实物期权价值计算模型,并应用于香港迪斯尼乐园二期项目实物期权价值评估,得出项目价值范围。最后对模型进行讨论,结果分析表明该项目价值受资产现值影响最大,建设、运营成本和建设时间次之。

The value of the Public- Private- Partnership （PPP） project is the most important issue that all parties eoneem in the process of investment, construction, operation and transfer of the project. In the PPP project life cycle, uncertainties brought about by the market environment, policies, and decision makers may affect the value of the project, which cannot be calculated through the traditional evaluation method, such as Net Present Value method. However, Real Option method is very helpful in evaluating the uncertainties value of PPP project. Therefore, the general steps of PPP project valuation method based on Fuzzy Real Option are proposed on the basis of the related research. And a fuzzy real option value model is developed. Hong Kong Disneyland project （Stage Two） is implemented to demonstrate the accuracy and usefulness of the model, and the value of this project is evaluated.