摘要
应用灰色自记忆模型,根据1957—2006年黄河内蒙古段巴彦高勒、三湖河口、头道拐3个水文站实测封冻期最高水位,建立了封冻期最高水位预测模型,并对2007—2011年封冻期最高水位进行了预测。结果表明:巴彦高勒、三湖河口、头道拐站预报合格率分别为66.7%、100%、83.3%,拟合合格率分别为90.7%、93.5%、91.1%。
Based on gray self-memory theory, the forecast model was established through the highest water level in freezing period of Bayangaale, Sanhuhekou and Toudaoguai stations of the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River in 1957 -2006, and forecasted the highest water level in freezing period of 2007 - 2011. The results show that the qualified rate of prediction is 66.7% , 100% and 83.3% respectively of the three stations and the qualified rate of fitting is 90.7%, 93.5% and 91.1% respectively.
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2013年第2期3-5,共3页
Yellow River
关键词
灰色自记忆模型
水位预报
凌汛
内蒙古河段
黄河
gray self-memory model
water level forecast
ice flood
Inner Mongolia reach
Yellow River
