将房价因素计入中国CPI的实证研究

Empirical Study on China's CPI Included the Housing Price Factor

近年来中国房价的快速上涨与下跌和相对稳定的CPI不配比问题,引起国人对CPI指标的质疑,已影响到政府统计公信力。运用中国2010年CPI的月度数据与各月CPI分类数据,在借鉴美国使用成本法和澳大利亚获取法的基础上,重新建立中国CPI在住房消费方面的两种核算方法。通过对两种方法核算的CPI数据比较发现,澳大利亚获取法核算符合中国社会经济发展现状,能更真实反映中国城乡居民消费价格水平。鉴于中国房价对CPI的显著影响,中国应该采用获取法核算CPI,将房价直接计入CPI核算中,进而提高CPI指标的公信力。

In recent years CPI unmatched problem of housing price fast rise and tall and the relative stability in China has caused people to question the CPI index, and has affected the credibility of government statistics. How can CPI scientific and reasonable reflects the real operation of housing price？ This paper uses Chinas CPI 2010 monthly data and classification of each month CPI data, in reference to the United States using cost method and Australia acquisition method： to establish two new accounting methods of China＇s CPI in housing consumption. Through CPI data comparison of the two accounting methods ： Australia acquisition method conforms to China＇s social and economic development, and more accurately reflects the consumer price level of urban and rural residents in china. In view of the significant influence of housing price on CPI, we put forward that China should adopt the acquisition method to account CPI, housing price should be included directly in the CPI accounting, thus improving the CPI index credibility.