山东省入境旅游客源市场预测研究——基于灰色GM(1,1)模型

Forecasting Inbound Tourist Source Market of Shandong Province——Based on Grey Forecasting Model GM(1,1)

为了给山东省入境旅游客源市场的规划发展提供决策上的参考,进行了山东省入境旅游游客量的指标建模与预测。基于灰色系统理论,以山东省2005-2010年入境旅游统计资料为原始数据,构建入境旅游游客量指标的GM(1,1)灰色预测动态模型。通过对各项指标的检验,得出模型的预测级别为好。并对2011-2015年的入境旅游游客量进行了预测,并将预测结果与2011年最新统计数据进行比对,准确率高达99%。由此预测结果可以看出,未来5年山东省入境旅游发展势头强劲,应当密切关注国际客源市场的需求动向,实施正确的战略引导。

In order to provide reference for the growth plan for tourist source market of Shandong Province, we constructed index modeling and forecasting for the number of inbound tourists in Shandong. In this paper, based on grey theory and the relevant inbound tourism statistics of Shandong Province from 2005 to 2010, a GM （ 1, 1 ） grey predictive dynamic model was constructed. Through examining each target, the model level for the prediction was found to be high, based on which, the inbound tourism indexes of Shandong Province for the next five years （ from 2011 to 2015 ） were predicted by using the model above. In addition, a comparison was made between the predicting outcomes and the latest statistics in 2011, with the accuracy rate turning out to be 99%. It is forecasted that in the next five years Shandong inbound tourism will get a rapid development. The government should pay close attention to the international tourist source market and implement proper strategic guidance.