我国能源碳排放的空间差异及低碳发展路径研究

Study on Spatial Differentiation in Energy Carbon Emission and Low-carbon Developmental Path of China

用GeoDa软件的四分位图、Moran’s I及局域Moran指数散点图来综合描述我国能源碳排放、人均能源碳排放和单位GDP能源碳排放空间分异与局部集聚的典型事实。研究发现,各项指标存在明显的空间差异,这种差异不仅体现在宏观的东中西差异上,同时也存在局部的空间相关性,并且在地理空间分布上存在一定的规律。基于这种区域差异,设定3种能源碳排放约束情景,分析它们可能引起的区域效应。在此基础上提出建议:在总量控制的基础上,发展国内碳排放交易市场、建立区域碳补偿机制和碳排放权储备机构,并充分运用财税手段、价格机制等途径来实现我国的低碳发展。

Quartile graph of GeoDa, Moran＇ s I and local Moran index scatter diagram were used to describe the typical situa- tion of spatial differentiation and partial concentration of energy carbon emission, energy carbon emission per capita and energy car- bon emission per GDP. We found that the spatial differentiations were obvious in each index, which not only reflected the macro- scopic difference among east, middle and west, but also had partial spatial correlation, and their rules could be concluded on geo- graphic spatial differentiation. Based on the regional difference, we set three energy carbon emission constraint scenes to analyze the probable regional effect they caused. Thus we suggested that the domestic carbon emission market should be developed, and the re- gional carbon compensation mechanism and carbon mission right reservation institution should be set up based on the total amount control. Fiscal means and price mechanism should be aoolied to realize low -carbon develooment in China.