地震应急避难需求的系统动力学研究

System Dynamical Study on Needs of Emergency Shelters for Earthquakes

为定量研究地震应急避难人群的规模及变化规律,建立需求分析的系统动力学模型。该模型包括建筑物倒塌,断水和电梯停运3种因素造成的需求。参考汶川地震中板房建设速度和电梯修复速度,以及日本关于地震断水率的研究成果,建立非线性模型拟合各需求的变化规律。采用Vensim软件建立系统动力学模型,分析各需求的综合变化规律。采用上海市徐汇区的数据进行案例演算,并与其他研究方法对比分析仿真误差。仿真结果表明:建筑物损坏对人群数量的影响很大,但是灾后1个月内断水的影响最大;相对于工程技术因素,人因对需求有重要的影响。

In order to quantitatively examine the needs of the emergency shelters for earthquake ters, a system dynamic model was built. Three types of needs were included, i. e. , the damaged disas- build- ings, the paused water supply, and the paused elevators. Based on the construction speed of shelters and the recovering speed of elevators in Wenchuan earthquake, and the researches on the recovering speed of water supply pipes, some unlinear mathematical models were built to simulate the change tendencies of the needs. Vensim software was used for building the system dynamical models for the comprehensive analysis of all needs. The model was used for the analysis of the needs of Xuhui district, Shanghai city. The results show that the damaged buildings impact the human quantity in the shelters greatly, but in the first month after disasters water supply plays the major role, and that besides of the technology and engineering factors, the human factor plays an important role in the needs analysis. Some suggestions were proposed for the earthquake relief work based on the results.