海上突发灾难事件应急物资调度优化方法研究

Study on Optimizing of Emergency Resources Scheduling for Maritime Perils

为满足海上突发灾难事件救援对应急物资的需求,最大限度降低其带来的损失,根据海上突发灾难事件的特点,提出救助目标在受复杂气象、海况等因素影响发生漂移/扩散时的海上突发灾难事件应急物资调度方法。综合考虑海洋环境影响,引入救助资源包的概念。构建考虑时间、运力、物资需求等约束条件,以最大限度地满足物资供应可靠性为目标的海上突发灾难事件多级应急物资调度优化模型。通过算例对模型的应用进行验证。研究结果表明,事件形态的演变会影响应急物资集结点的选择,需要在预测事件形态时空变化的基础上合理确定海上应急物资调度方案。

In order to meet the demand for emergency resources under maritime perils, and minimize the loss perils causing, a method for scheduling emergency resources to maximize its supply reliability with the constraints of time, capacity and demand, was worked out, which can be used even when the rescue target drifts and diffuses under complex meteorological and sea conditions. Considering the marine environment, the concept of the rescue resources package was introduced. An optimization model for multi-level resources scheduling for maritime perils was built, and verified by an example. The result shows that perils morphology can affect the choice of the assembling points and reliability of scheduling scheme, and that in order to guarantee the reliability and effectiveness of rescue resources scheduling, the scheduling scheme needs to be based on the forecast of perils morphology.