且末荒漠绿州区热量资源变化特征及潜力分析

Change Characteristics of Heat Resources and Resource Potential at Desert Oasis in Qiemo

根据新疆且末气象站1981—2010年气象整编资料,采用线性趋势分析、滑动平均、距平分析等方法,分析热量资源的变化特征。结果表明,近30 a来年平均气温呈上升趋势;≥0、≥10℃积温明显增加;日平均气温稳定通过0、10、15、20℃初日提前,终日稳定推后,持续日数增加;无霜期延长。且末荒漠与绿洲热量资源若能够得到合理利用,农业自然生产潜力还很大。

Using the data from meteorological weather station at Qiemo in Xinjiang during 1981- 2010,this paper analyzed the variation of heat resources by the methods of linear trend analysis, moving average, anomaly analysis and other methods. The average temperature showed an upward trend in recent 30 a;accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ increased significantly; the first day of daily average temperature steadily passing 0 ℃, 10℃, 15 ℃, and 20℃ came earlier and the last day of those came later, and the duration days increased; frost-free period extended; the naturally agricultural productive potention will be great if the heat resources at the Qiemo desert oasis are used suitablely.