关于中美集装箱运价影响因素的实证研究

中美之间巨大的运输需求一直是我国集装箱运输企业的重要利润来源。在后危机时代,中美经济贸易环境的不确定性、国际原油价格的不断攀升造成我国航运企业运价极不稳定。通过因子分析和回归分析研究了中美集装箱运价的影响因素,结果表明中美之间的贸易环境对运价的影响较大,国际油价上涨使集装箱运输收入减少,同时伴随成本上升,极大地缩小了航运企业的利润空间。因此政府应将汇率维持在一个合理的水平,以保持我国出口商品的价格竞争力。同时我国航运企业也需要积极采取应对措施以规避国际油价上涨带来的危险,充分运用远期运价合约、原油期货等金融衍生工具进行风险管理,将未来收入和成本保持在一个合理的范围之内。

The big demand for transportation between China and USA is always the significant profits source for Chinese con- tainer carriers. After the financial crisis, the freight rate of Chinese shipping companies ttuctuated heavily, partly because of the uncertainness of the Sino - US trade environment and the increase of world crude oil price. This paper makes an empirical research on the factors which influences the freight rate of Sino - US line by factor analysis and regression analysis. It can be concluded that the trade environment has a bigger impact on the change of Sino - US freight rate. The increase of oil price will lessen benefit of shipping company, as well as raise their cost. It is suggested that government should make the exchange rate in a reasonable level to maintain China＇ s shipping carriers＇ competitiveness. Shipping companies should take measures to avoid risk caused by increasing oil price by FFA or oil forward. Those financial derivatives could help container carriers control the in- come and cost efficiently.