我国农业现代化进程测度的主要问题

The major problems and their improvement of agricultural modernization process evaluation in China

在借鉴国内外农村现代化和社会现代化进程测度研究经验的基础上 ,思考我国区域农业现代化进程测度实践 ,发现了研究中存在的一些亟待解决的问题 ,如在对不同农业地域类型的划分及典型性区域的选取时 ,缺少严格的理论分析 ,导致进程测度指标体系缺乏地域农业现代化的针对性 ;片面地追求指标项的完备性、指标项数量上的绝对值 ;指标项权重确定的方法不甚科学 ;评价标准和模型缺乏动态性 ;导致评价指标体系构建的主观性太强 ;研究技术手段滞后等 .针对上述问题 ,提出运用主成分结合聚类分析的方法 ,划分并选取出不同类型、等级的农业地域单位 ;参看相关分析结果 ,运用灰色分析结合主成分分析 ,选择符合地域实际的指标项 ,采用熵技术支持下的AHP方法确定指标项的权重 ,作为构建地域农业现代化进程测度指标体系的依据 ;采用仿生态学逻辑斯谛增长曲线模型模拟其在时间上的动态变化等 ,以确保对不同类型、等级地域单位农业现代化进程测度的准确、合理 .

Based on the analysis of the study on rural modernization, a few problems are elaborated, such as the lack of the theoretical analysis of the classification among the different types and grade regions, the addiction to the absolute values of the factors,the neglect of the scientific research on the weights' allotment of the respective correlative variables, and so on. Agricultural modernization is a specific process, and also a dynamic process. Principle, models, and standards should be adjusted moderately. In the design of agricultural modernization process evaluation, precision and rationalization are the basic indexes of measuring agricultural. Owing to agricultural modernization extensive contents, regional and dynamic character, the Main Component Analysis Method and other methods are used to select the main factors. The logistic model and Fuzzy integral model are set up to measure the level of agricultural modernization in various regions or at different stages. Some scientific technique, counter measures and improvement suggestions are also put forwards.