区域低碳发展影响因素的结构方程模型分析

The Regional Low-carbon Factors' Analysis Based on Structural Equation Modeling

结合低碳经济发展理论及国内外实践成果,提炼出区域经济社会发展水平、发展结构、技术因素、生活方式和碳汇发展等5个低碳发展影响因素.采用结构方程模型方法建立了区域低碳发展影响因素关系模型,使用我国各省区的统计数据对因素间的作用关系进行了验证与量化.通过拟合程度检验,证明假设模型与观测资料基本相契合.根据模型输出的路径系数,探讨了各影响因素、观测指标之间的相互作用关系,以及对区域低碳发展的影响程度.

Based on the theory and practice of low-carbon development, five low-carbon factors including economic and social development level, development structure, low-carbon technology, lifestyle, and carbon sink are put forward. Making use of the structural equation modeling （SEM） method, the factors relationship model of regional low-carbon development is set up. The relationship among low-carbon factors is tested and quantitated by using the statistical data of Chinese provinces and municipalities. It is proved that the hypothetical model and the observational data are mainly coincident, according to the test of fitting degree. For drawing up the regional low-carbon development scheme,the relationship among low-carbon factors and observation indices are analyzed in line with the path coefficients which output by the SEM model.