基于Nerlove模型的山东省玉米供给反应研究

Supply Response for Maize in Shandong Province Based on Nerlove Model

根据1978～2010年山东省玉米价格和播种面积的年度数据,运用Nerlove模型,对山东省玉米供给反应进行实证分析。结果表明,山东省玉米供给价格弹性较低,即山东省玉米播种面积不能根据玉米价格的变动做出迅速调整,当价格发生突涨或突跌时,玉米的供给不能迅速适应这种变化,进而加剧玉米供求不平衡。为此,一方面要加快玉米价格信息公开平台建设,另一方面在坚持严格保护耕地的前提下加大包括玉米在内的粮食作物的补贴政策力度,并保持政策的连续性。

According to annual data of maize price and sowing area during 1978 -2010 and adopting Nerlove model, the supply response of maize in Shandong Province was analyzed. The results showed that, price elasticity of maize supply in Shandong Province is low, that is to say, Shandong Province can＇ t adjust maize sowing area rapidly to the price changes of maize. When the price of maize rises or drops sudden- ly, the supply of maize can＇ t adapt the changes quickly, then aggravate the imbalance of supply and demand. Therefore, on the one hand, we should speed up the construction of public platform price information ; on the other hand, in the premise of insisting protecting farmland strict- lv. increase subsidies oolicv of ~rain croD includin~ maize, and maintain the continuity of ~olicies.