事故率预测模型在管网改造中的应用

Application of the Accidents Prediction Model in Water Supply Network Rehabilitation

在给水管网改造过程中,通过对整个供水运行期间导致管道性能降低的指标的分析,建立给水管网的事故率预测模型。对多种管网事故率的预测模型的特点及其运用时的优缺点进行了阐述,认为在给水管网改造方案制定过程中,通过事故率预测模型的应用,可以较为科学准确地选择需要改造的管道。

Some indexes which are correlative with the level of deterioration of the pipes directly during rehabilitation of the water supply network, was analyzed. Several models of deterioration of water mains were introduced here, and the properties and advantages or disadvantages of each model were also analyzed. The result showed that these methods will enhance the reliability of rehabilitated pipes selection, and created a reliable basement for optimal rehabilitation scheme.