2020年中国发电行业碳减排目标规划相符性分析

Consistency analysis between technology plans and reduction target on CO_2 emissions from China's power sector in 2020

基于发电行业节能减排技术的现有应用规划,预测3种不同的GDP增长情景,即减速发展,基准情景和高速发展情景下,若能实现我国现有关于发电行业节能减排技术的规划目标,2020年发电行业的CO2排放量将达到35.32,39.15,43.20亿t.同时基于中国2020年碳强度减排承诺,计算得国家2020年CO2排放目标在不同发展情景下将达到97.30～127.96亿t不等.结合上述结果讨论,发电行业规划目标相符要求2020年的CO2排放比例为33.27%～36.82%.结果表明,若能实现我国现有关于发电行业节能减排技术的规划目标,则对应于不同的GDP增长速度,发电行业总碳排放量能够完成国家承诺碳强度减排的分解目标.

Based on existing energy saving technology plans in the power sector of China, the CO2 emissions in 2020 was projected to reach 3532,3915 and 4320 million ton respectively in 3 different scenarios, e.g. high-speed development, baseline scenario and low-speed development, provided that all the planning objectives were achieved. According to China＇s CO2 intensity reduction commitments, the CO2 emission target in 2020 was expected to reach 9730-12796 million ton in accordance with different GDP growth rote. Combining the above results, consistency between technology plans and reduction target required the emission rate of power sector to be between 33.27% and 36.82%, which means the total carbon emissions of the power sector was able to complete the decomposition of national carbon intensity reduction target provided that all the energy saving technology planning objectives were achieved irrespective of the GDP growth rate.