摘要
随着15-59岁劳动年龄人口于2010年开始负增长,推动过去30多年高速经济增长的劳动力和资本供给以及全要素生产率增长条件,都趋于减缓经济增长。我们的估计表明,中国潜在产出年均增长率将下降为"十二五"期间的7.2%和"十三五"期间的6.1%。保持未来经济增长的关键在于通过改革提高潜在增长率。本文模拟了两个最重要途径——包括提高劳动参与率和全要素生产率提高潜在增长率的效果,并提出相关政策建议。
As a result of the shrinkage of working age population at ages between 15 and 59, all factors which have driven the fast economic growth in the past over 30 years tend to diminish after 2010. This paper estimates annual growth rate of potential output to be 7.2 percent in 12th Five-year Plan period and 6.1 percent in 13th Five-Year Plan period. To maintain future sustainable growth requires economic reform in related areas to enhance potential growth rate. This paper simulates two scenarios in which both increase in labor force participation and improvement in total factor productivity can significantly enhance potential GDP growth rate. It also draws some policy suggestions.
出处
《全球化》
2013年第1期27-37,124,共11页
Globalization
