岭回归方法对医院住院病人成本评估的探讨

Study on Evaluation Method of Inpatients' Cost by Ridge Regression

目的 确定医院住院病人成本的影响因素 ,并对其进行定量测量。方法 采用 SPSS、NOSA软件 ,用最小二乘法 ,建立医院床位、床位和出院病人人数的回归模型 ,对模型进行了对比分析 ,并对医院其他影响因素进行了相关分析 ,最后用岭回归方法建立了 2 3个变量的医院成本定量的经济模型。结果 发现不仅医院的规模对医院成本有影响 ,医院的利用对医院成本也有重要的作用。结论 提高病床周转次数 ,缩短医院住院病人平均住院日是降低医院住院病人成本的主要途径。

Objective This paper studies the evaluation method of inpatients' cost in order to provide basis for government to manage and assess hospitals in a macro way. Methods The predictive equations of inpatients' cost are set up by the method of ridge regression. The evaluation intervals of inpatients' cost are given by the method of relative error and percentile. Results Results show that hospital cost is affected not only by hospital size but also by hospital resource utilization. Conclusion By the method of percentile and relative error, the influence of variation is overcome, so it is suggested the method is reasonable.