中国主要油料作物产量增长因素的实证研究

True Case Study on Factors Influencing China's Major Oil Crops Output

运用柯布-道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数模型,分析了1995-2011年生产要素投入和农业技术进步等对主要油料作物产量的影响程度。结果表明,农业技术进步对油料作物产量的增长贡献明显,其技术进步增长率呈现出增加趋势,其中油菜籽技术进步增长率高于花生和大豆;扩大油料作物种植面积对于提高其产量的贡献较为明显,成灾率、农产品价格指数对主要油料作物产量增长的影响为负,要素投入对油料作物产量增长的影响较为显著,最后提出了相关的政策建议。

C-D production function model was used to estimate the impact of investments and technological progress on China＇s main oilseeds production from 1995 to 2011. The results showed that the progress in agricultural technology had made remarkable contribution to oil crop yield increase, and the growth rate gained from technical progress was showing an increasing trend, among which oilseed got higher growth rate than peanut and soyabean. Expanding oil crop planting acreage had made the most distinct contribution to its yield increase. Disaster rate and price index of agricultural products had negative effects on major oil crop yields. Essential inputs had remarkable influence on oil crop yield. This paper also put forward several policy suggestions according to the reseach findings.