我国居民生活消费碳排放的动态特征及影响因素分析

An Analysis of the Dynamic Characteristics and the Influential Factors of Carbon Emissions from Residential Consumptions in China

依据居民最终消费商品和服务情况,估算出2000～2010年中国城乡居民生活消费的直接和间接碳排放,分析了中国居民生活碳排放动的态特征,并采用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)分解出中国居民生活消费碳排放的主要影响因素。研究结果显示:我国居民生活消费碳排放总体上呈增长趋势,间接碳排放量多于直接碳排放,城镇碳排放总量和人均量均超过农村,且差距越来越大;食品类、居住类、交通和通信类以及文教娱乐用品服务类是居民间接碳排放的主要来源,居住类增长最快;居民消费总量是生活消费碳排放的主要影响因子,其次是居民消费结构和城乡消费比例;技术提升是抑制碳排放的重要因素。

Based on the final residential consumptions, the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions in China from 2000 to 2010 have been calculated and the dynamic characteristics of household emissions have been analyzed. The logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） has been adopted to analyze the main influential factor of carbon emissions from residential consumptions in China. The results show that the residential carbon emissions have been increased year by year with more indirect carbon emissions and urban emissions are larger than the rural emissions with the gap becoming widened. The consumptions of ＂food＂, ＂residences＂ and ＂transportation and communication＂ are the three main sources of indirect carbon emissions. The factors decomposition has proved that the household total consumption is the most important factor for the dynamic change of urban residential carbon emissions. The consumption structure is the second contributor for the increase. While the change of urban and rural structure has limited impact on increasing carbon increase. Technique improvement is the key factor to decrease the residential carbon emissions.