基于悲观偏差的定价订购报贩模型

Newsvendor Model with Pricing and Ordering Decision-making Based on Pessimistic Bias

研究报贩的悲观偏差对于其联合定价订购决策的影响。本文使用预期效用(Anticipated Utility)决策模型,预期效用理论最大优点是包含了决策者的概率相关的风险态度,从而可以很好地刻画决策者的悲观偏差。我们证明了随机需求具有加形式时,悲观偏差使得报贩设定的最优价格低于期望利润最大化报贩的最优价格,而悲观偏差和边际效用递减的联合作用使得报贩的最优定价进一步向下偏离于期望利润最大化报贩的最优价格。然而无法确定这两类心理偏差对于报贩最优订购量的影响。

In this paper, we examine the effect of newsvendor＇s pessimistic bias on decision behavior of pricing and ordering. We use the Anticipated Utility Theory to investigate the newsvendor＇s problem under pricing setting. A major advantage of this decision-making model is that it can completely characterize decision-makers＇ attitudes toward risk depended on probabilities, which can describe decision-makers＇ pessimistic bias very well. We demonstrate that the optimal price set by a pessimistic newsvendor is less than that set by a newsvendor who makes his decision in terms of the principle of maximizing expected profits. Furthermore, we also show that the synergistic effect of pessimism and diminishing marginal utility make a newsvendor to bring down his price more. But the effect of the two types of psychological biases on optimal order quantity is still undetermined.