温室效应与气候变化

Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change

气候学家普遍认为温室气体引起的辐射异常可能构成10年或更长尺度气候变化的支配因子,甚至导致一场大规模的气候变化。温室效应已从CO_2问题扩展到痕量气体问题。大气环流模式发展到能模拟瞬时非平衡态响应。海洋模式可以将热量向深海扩散和沿表层向极地输送,表层环流能够响应气候的变化。新近模拟表明,温室增温已接近可被探测出来的关键阶段。一二十年后增温将超出温度自然波动幅度。但是,现阶段还无法把温室效应从气候自然噪音中区分出来。所谓温室效应引起的气候变化已经存在的说法还仅仅是合乎逻辑的推断。

It is now generally recognized that anomalies in radiative forcing Induced by trace gases of anthropogenic origin can become the dominant factor governing climate change on decadal to longer time scales. Some time in the next century the earth's climate is expected to undergo a major warming as a result of greenhouse effect. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are now adding the greenhouse effect by an amount comparable to the effect of CO2. The problem concerning the greenhouse effects has broadened in scope from the CO2-climate problem to the trace gas-climate problem. The new models behave more like the real world than earlier one's in two ways. They simulate the effects of gradual, rather than instantaneous, increases of greenhouse gases and transient response to the climate system. They transfer heat from the atmosphere into the deep ocean and carry it in surface water toward the poles, all in currents that can vary in response to climate change. But they are still not running a realistic ocean. The new modles do not include in a physical way the horizonal transports of heat, momentum, and salinity and could not therefore correctly simulate the regional distribution of climate. Recent simulations suggest that global greenhouse warming will soon rise above the level of natural climate variability. The greenhouse theory of climate change has reached the crucial stage of verification. While the evidences for climate change are meaningful, no one is claiming a certain identification of the greenhouse signal. Any intensification of the greenhouse is not yet detectable above the background of natural climatic noise. To say that the greenhouse is here now is just a logical, well-reasoned conclusion.