中国服务业投资效率研究——基于历史数据修正的史实证据

Research on Investment Efficiency of China's Service Industry——Based on the Historical Evidence of the Modified Historical Data

为全面解析服务业产出占GDP比重以及服务业投资总额持续增长背景下的投资是否具有效率,本文利用史实数据构建了1985-2011年服务业投资、产出、就业人数、工资收入、城镇化率等一系列指标,并采用2003-2010年间的省级面板数据进行了回归分析。研究结果表明:和一、二产业相比,服务业具有极高的资本消耗率,其中交通运输、仓储和邮政业与房地产业的投资效率最低。就区域差异而言,与中西部相比,我国东部地区的服务业投资效率最高。造成这一现象的原因既有核算制度的缺陷,也有现行区域经济发展不平衡的原因,同时也有行业自身的特点和现行体制的阻碍。

In order to analyze whether the investment on service industry is efficient under the background of sustainable growth of the service industry output share of GDP and the total amount of investment in service industry. This paper uses historical data from 1985 to 2011 to construct a series of indicators, including the service industry investment, production, employment, wage income and urbanization, and uses the 2003- 2010 provincial panel data to conduct a regression analysis. Research shows that： compared with primary and secondary industry, service industry has high capital consumption~ transportation, storage, postal service and real estate have low efficiency of investment. Considering regional differences, the investment efficiency of east regions is higher than that of central and west regions. This phenomenon is caused by not only accounting system defects, but also the unbalanced development of regional economy,and the industry＇s own characteristics and current system are also obstacles.