高职高专院校生源变动趋势实证研究

Empirical Study on Changing Trend for Student Sources of Higher Vocational Schools

近几年,由于受到适龄人口减少、高考"三放弃"以及出国留学人数增加等因素影响,作为我国普通高等教育半壁江山的高职高专院校开始出现生源危机。实证研究也表明,随着普通高等院校生源总量的减少及普通本科院校招生人数的增加,未来几年高职高专生源供需矛盾将加剧,将面临严重的生源下降趋势。

In recent years, due to the impact of the decreasing of schoolage population, the ＂three abandonments＂ in ma triculation and the increasing of people studying abroad, higher vocational schools accounting for half of general higher ed ucation begin to face the crisis for student source in China. It is found through empirical study that, with the decreasing of the amount of student source of general higher education and the increasing of general undergraduate colleges＇ enroll ment, the imbalance between supply and demand in higher vocational schools will be anabatic and these schools will con front with a severe decreasing trend in students source in years to come.