基于区间数的智能电网经济效益评价研究

Economic Benefits Evaluation of Smart Grid Based on Interval Numbers

发展智能电网是应对全球气候变化与能源问题的有效途径。针对目前我国智能电网发展现状,从发电环节、电网环节、用电环节和其他经济效益四方面对智能电网经济效益进行了识别,并进一步构建了其评价指标体系。结合定性分析与定量分析,以模糊综合评价法为基础,引入区间数表征专家判断信息的模糊性,建立了基于区间数的智能电网经济效益评价模型,对我国智能电网的经济效益进行了评价。研究结果表明,所构建的经济效益评价指标体系合理,评价结果可信,评价方法引入区间数从而避免了主观臆断,可作为我国智能电网投资的决策工具。

The development of smart grid functions as an efficient way to deal with the global climate change and ener- gy shortage problems. Considering the status quo of China＇s smart grid, the economic benefits are analyzed from the four links： generation, grid, consumption and the other benefits, and correspondingly the comprehensive evaluation index system is established. Then the paper proposed the economic benefits evaluation model for smart grid based on interval numbers, by combining the quantitative and qualitative analysis and introducing the interval numbers to re- fleet the fuzzy features of expert judgment. As actual evaluation indicates, the suggested evaluation index system is reasonable and reliable for the introduction of interval numbers can avoid subjective judgment, thus it can be used to provide references for smart grid investment decision-making.