光伏发电功率预测方法的探索

Physical Method for Photovoltaic Power Prediction

首先,分析了影响光伏电站输出功率的各类气象因素,再根据物理原理建立了气象因素与光伏电池板电气特性之间的关系,最后,通过光伏电池的二极管模型及逆变器损耗模型实现了对光伏电站输出功率的预测,并根据某光伏电站的实测数据对功率方法进行验证。预测结果表明,该方法有较高的预测精度,能够满足工程应用的要求,且不受历史数据的限制,可用于新建光伏电站的功率预测。

The various meteorological factors affecting the output power of the photovohaic （ PV ） power station are ana- lyzed at first. Then the relationship between the meteorological factors and electrical characteristics of PV panel is for- mulated on the basis of physical theory. Finally, the output power of PV station is predicted using the PV cell diode model and the inverter loss model, and the measured data from an actual PV station are used to verify the prediction. The prediction results show that the method can improve the prediction precision and meet the requirements of practi- cal application. Besides, the method is not restricted by the historical data, adaptable to the power prediction of new- ly-built PV power stations.