科技进步对纺织工业出口作用的实证分析

Empirical analysis of effect of scientific and technological advancement on export of textiles of China

依据科技进步促进经济增长的理论,在C-D生产函数(柯布—道格拉斯生产函数)的基础上,采用索洛(Solow)余值法分析我国纺织工业科技贡献率,运用灰色关联度分析法对资本的产出弹性α和劳动力的产出弹性β这2个参数进行了估计,计算了2001—2010年我国纺织工业科技贡献率。通过观察科技贡献率与纺织品服装出口额增长率之间的数量依存关系,将前者作为自变量,后者作为因变量,确立了二者的指数回归模型。该模型通过了显著性检验,表明我国纺织工业科技贡献率与纺织品服装出口额增长率呈显著的指数相关关系,科技进步对我国纺织工业出口起到了重要的推动作用。

In accordance with relevant theories that explain the connection between scientific advancement and economic growth, this paper bases itself on C-D production function and Solow＇s residual measurement, and analyses the contribution rate of science and technology to China＇s textile industry. Using grey relative analysis, it also estimates the variables of capital output elasticity and labor output elasticity, and calculates the contribution rate of science and technology to China＇s textile industry from 2001 to 2010. The paper sets an exponential regression model for the two variables by looking into the relationship between the contribution rate of science and textile export growth, with the former as an independent variable and the latter a dependent one. A significance test of this model indicates an apparent correlation between the contribution rate of science and the growth rate of China＇s textile products-scientific and technological advancement plays an important role in promoting the export of China＇s textile products.