第三次工业革命与新型工业化道路的新思维——来自演化经济学和经济史的视角

The Third Industrial Revolution and New Thinking of the New Path to Industrialization:Based on the Perspective of Evolutionary Economics and Economic History

目前我国有关新型工业化道路的内涵和实现途径仍是以2002年时对第五次技术革命浪潮的主导技术——信息技术革命为基础加以定义的,并没有反映出目前已逐渐清晰的以第六次技术革命浪潮为核心的第三次工业革命对工业化道路的巨大影响。新型工业化道路应该在信息化的基础上增加可再生能源革命(绿色技术)、智能化和纳米技术革命的新内涵。抓住新技术革命的历史机遇是我国新型工业化道路的实质。在第二次工业革命时,落后的美国和德国通过抓住"第二种机会窗口"成功地实现了跳跃式发展。从演化经济学的理论和经济史的视角进行分析,我国的新型工业化道路如果要取得成功,就必须依托民族产业和庞大的国内市场,从新技术革命的产业价值链高端入手,重塑我国在第三次工业革命中的竞争优势,这是我国与美、日、欧共同成为第三次工业革命领导者的必由之路。

Defined on the base of the dominant technology of the fifth wave of technology revolution, namely information and communication technology （ICT）, in 2002, the inherent nature and realizing ways of ＂the New Path to Industrialization＂ in present China does not reflect the remarkable impact on the path to industri- alization created by the Third Industrial Revolution, the core of which is the sixth wave of technology revolu- tion. Besides ICT, some new contents including Renewable Energy Revolution （Green Technology）, Artificial Intelligence Technology and Nanotechnology Revolution, should be supplemented into ＂the New Path to In- dustrialization＂. The essence of ＂the New Path＂ is firmly grasping the historical opportunities of the new technological revolution. Its strong evidence is the economic take-off of the US and Germany, which successfully seized ＂the second window of opportunity＂ in the Second Industrial Revolution. This paper analyzes these phenomena thoroughly grounded on evolutionary economics. The national industries should be strengthened, the domestic market should be expanded, the high ends of industry value chains of new technological revolution should be occupied, and the competitive advantages in the third industrial revolution should be reestablished in order to make China achieve the goal of ＂the New Path to Industrialization＂. This is the inevitable choice of China to become one of the leaders of the Third Industrial Revolution together with the US, Japan and the EU. This paper demonstrates policy choices of this strategy from a comparative perspective of history and reality.