现阶段中国货币政策总体特征与现实匹配

At the Present Stage of China’s Monetary Policy Overall Features and the Practical Matching

回顾改革开放以来的中国宏观经济走势,可以发现通货膨胀与通货紧缩交错出现。但总的看来,中国经济中出现通货膨胀的概率显著高于通货紧缩。现阶段中国货币政策面临着与通胀与货币关系的背离、金融监管、金融危机应对、输入型通胀、刘易斯拐点、内外部失衡和离岸人民币市场发展的若干挑战。货币与通胀之间的关系是影响货币政策决策的重要因素,其同步关系出现趋势性的背离给政策决策带来新的课题。随着国际社会普遍将宏观审慎管理以及更加严厉的金融监管措施引入宏观管理的范畴,这将对未来金融体系的运作产生深远的影响。

By reviewing the macroeconomic trends in China since the reform and opening up, the inflation and deflation alternately appear. But in general, the probability of inflation in China is significantly higher than that of deflation. At this stage of China＇s monetary policy faces a number of challenges that are the departure from the relationship between inflation and monetary, financial supervision, financial crisis response, imported inflation, Lewis turning point, both internal and external imbalances and offshore RMB market development. The relationship between the currency and inflation is an important factor to influence monetary policy decisions, but an opposite trend of this synchronization relationship brings new task to policy decision. With macro-prudential management, as well as more stringent financial regulatory measures generally introduced into areas of macro-management in the international community, this will have a profound impact on the operation of the financial system.