中国是否存在住房泡沫的“避难所”

Does China Have Housing Bubble “Haven”?

本文从中国住房泡沫特征出发,构建"泡沫避难所"假说的理论框架,并在该框架中考虑城市二元公共住房保障政策产生的影响。为检验该假说,本文利用动态面板模型对中国35个大中城市的数据进行实证研究。结果显示:(1)中部城市具有"泡沫避难所"效应,即住房泡沫的增加使东部地区城市人口、人力资本、外来劳动力不断向中部地区集中;(2)在二元公共住房保障政策背景下,住房泡沫的增加造成东部地区城市人口规模的减少与人力资本流失的减缓,中、西部地区城市人口规模、人力资本与外来劳动力的增加。

This paper constructs a theoretical framework of the 'Bubble Haven' Hypothesis(BHH) on the basis of characteristics of housing bubble in China and analyses the impacts resulting from dualistic security policy of urban public housing in the framework.To verify the BHH,this paper conducts positive analysis to the data of 35 large-and middle-sized cities in China by using the dynamic panel model.The results show that(1) the central cities have the effect of the 'bubbles haven',namely,an increase in housing bubble leads to the flow of urban population,human capital and the immigrant population from the eastern cities to the western areas;(2) under the background of dualistic security policy of public housing,an increase in housing bubble reduces urban population size and the loss of human capital in the eastern cities and boosts urban population,human capital and the migrant workers in the central and western cities.