人民币汇率变化的就业效应研究——基于广东省样本数据的实证检验

Research on the Employment Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Variation Based on the Data of Guangdong Province

文章首先用加权算术平均法测算出针对广东省的人民币实际有效汇率,然后利用广东省各市2003～2010年的面板数据,实证检验人民币实际有效汇率对广东省就业的影响。结论表明:人民币实际有效汇率升值会显著减少广东省就业;经济开放度越高、第二产业占比越高,人民币实际有效汇率的升值对就业的负面影响越大。最后针对该结论提出了在升值背景下如何促进广东省就业的政策建议。

This paper first calculates the RMB real effective exchange rate of Guangdong by using the weighted arithmetic method, and then empirically tests the employment effect of RMB real effective exchange rate variation based on the panel data of Guangdong from 2003 to 2010. It finds that the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate reduces the employment of Guangdong significantly, and its negative effect on the employment will be bigger with the rising degree of openness or the increasing proportion of the secondary industry. At the end, it proposes some suggestions for how to improve the employment of Guangdong under the background of RMB appreciation.